KXBTC15M-26JUN171930-30
— pending
NO▼Bearishimmediateprimary · R11.0%·173c@30¢pending
Awaiting Kalshi settlement. Outcome and reasoning will lock in once the window settles.
Kujaku
Kujaku v1.13paper
BTC6s
Kalshi7s
Cycle5m
Last cycle:
5m ago · ?
connecting…
Recent logs · last 1h
17:16:17warnschedulerv1.8.7 FVG RULE violation: decision 5375 (KXBTC15M-26JUN171930-30 R1) cited fvg_target_in_window in contributing_features (rule: cite open FVGs only in concerning_features). Thesis: BEARISH/NO. contributing=['lower_highs_forming', 'momentum_decelerating_against_thesis', 'fvg_target_in_window']
17:16:11warnclaudev1.10 retry-cause: review_index=1 attempt=1/6 errors=[action_type|missing|{'thesis': {'trend': 'BEARISH', 'implied_side': 'NO', 'co...; r1_status_at_r2|missing|{'thesis': {'trend': 'BEARISH', 'implied_side': 'NO', 'co...]
17:16:11warnclaudetrader response failed schema validation on attempt 1/6; retrying with hint. raw_response_preview (first 200 chars): '{\n "thesis": {\n "trend": "BEARISH",\n "implied_side": "NO",\n "contributing_features": [\n "lower_highs_forming",\n "momentum_decelerating_against_thesis",\n "fvg_break_point_in_wi…'
17:01:07warnclaudev1.10 retry-cause: review_index=1 attempt=1/6 errors=[action_type|missing|{'thesis': {'trend': 'BEARISH', 'implied_side': 'NO', 'co...; r1_status_at_r2|missing|{'thesis': {'trend': 'BEARISH', 'implied_side': 'NO', 'co...]
17:01:07warnclaudetrader response failed schema validation on attempt 1/6; retrying with hint. raw_response_preview (first 200 chars): '{\n "thesis": {\n "trend": "BEARISH",\n "implied_side": "NO",\n "contributing_features": [\n "momentum_accelerating_with_thesis",\n "price_below_vwap_bearish_thesis",\n "lower_highs_…'
Overview
Portfolio
$5,331.84
▼-$4,668.16 -46.7%
all-time
24h
▼-$923.66 -14.8%
▼-$923.66 -14.8%
24h
All-time
▼-$4,668.16 -46.7%
$10,298 high · $5,197 low$10,000 start
+3.0% high · -48.0% low0% start
Since 2026-06-09 · $10,000.00 · 8.0d
754 samples
$6,323 high · $5,197 low$6,255 start
+1.1% high · -16.9% low0% start
Last 24h · 97 samples
Skips
0
5m ago
Live Session
KXBTC15M-26JUN171930-30
·
closes in 7m 59s
·
live · 0.0s
$64,423
▼-$8
strike $64,242·▲+$181(+0.28%)
YES bid/ask
93/95¢
|
NO bid/ask
5/7¢
Positions
Open
1
NO▼Bearishimmediateprimary1.0%·173c
30¢(30%)
KXBTC15M-26JUN171930-30 · natural · R1 · 17:16 MDT
Pending
0
No pending entries.
Recent Sessions
KXBTC15M-26JUN171915-15
▲+$114.102.2%
settled
KXBTC15M-26JUN171915-15
2 trades
NOAddimmediateprimary · R21.0%·81c@64¢▲+$29.16Bearish · R1 was winning
Probability—
Edge—
Break-even—
R:R1:0.56
Entryimmediate
Fidelity—
Tier—
NO▼Bearishimmediateprimary · R11.0%·137c@38¢▲+$84.94
Probability—
Edge—
Break-even—
R:R1:1.63
Entryimmediate
Fidelity—
Tier—
KXBTC15M-26JUN171900-00
▼-$50.921.0%
settled
KXBTC15M-26JUN171900-00
2 trades
YESMitigateimmediateprimary · R21.0%·54c@97¢▲+$1.62Bearish · R1 was losing
Probability—
Edge—
Break-even—
R:R1:0.03
Entryimmediate
Fidelity—
Tier—
NO▼Bearishimmediateprimary · R11.0%·142c@37¢▼-$52.54
Probability—
Edge—
Break-even—
R:R1:1.70
Entryimmediate
Fidelity—
Tier—
KXBTC15M-26JUN171845-45
▲+$18.110.3%
settled
KXBTC15M-26JUN171845-45
2 trades
YESMitigateimmediateprimary · R21.0%·80c@65¢▼-$52.00Bearish · R1 was losing
Probability—
Edge—
Break-even—
R:R1:0.54
Entryimmediate
Fidelity—
Tier—
NO▼Bearishimmediateprimary · R11.0%·123c@43¢▲+$70.11
Probability—
Edge—
Break-even—
R:R1:1.33
Entryimmediate
Fidelity—
Tier—
KXBTC15M-26JUN171830-30
▼-$50.070.9%
settled
KXBTC15M-26JUN171830-30
2 trades
YESMitigateimmediateprimary · R21.0%·55c@95¢▲+$2.75Bearish · R1 was losing
Probability—
Edge—
Break-even—
R:R1:0.05
Entryimmediate
Fidelity—
Tier—
NO▼Bearishimmediateprimary · R11.0%·139c@38¢▼-$52.82
Probability—
Edge—
Break-even—
R:R1:1.63
Entryimmediate
Fidelity—
Tier—
KXBTC15M-26JUN171815-15
▲+$28.110.5%
settled
KXBTC15M-26JUN171815-15
3 trades
YESHedgeimmediate0.2%·49c@19¢▼-$9.31Bearish · 0.25× hedge
Probability—
Edge—
Break-even—
R:R1:4.26
Entryimmediate
Fidelity—
Tier—
NOAddimmediateprimary · R21.0%·66c@79¢▲+$13.86Bearish · R1 was winning
Probability—
Edge—
Break-even—
R:R1:0.27
Entryimmediate
Fidelity—
Tier—
NO▼Bearishimmediateprimary · R11.0%·76c@69¢▲+$23.56
Probability—
Edge—
Break-even—
R:R1:0.45
Entryimmediate
Fidelity—
Tier—
🔶 Hedge Performance
Total hedges187
Win rate13%
Avg entry12¢
Total P&L-$1,172.77
By sizing bucket
settled hedges, per bucket
| Bucket | n | WR | Avg entry | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25× conservative | 150 | 13% | 11¢ | +$31.31 |
| 0.50× small | 21 | 19% | 15¢ | -$59.52 |
| 0.75× moderate | 7 | 14% | 16¢ | -$100.42 |
| 1.00× full | 7 | 0% | 14¢ | -$540.82 |
| 1.50× aggressive | 2 | 0% | 11¢ | -$503.32 |
Sizing bucket distribution
wins / losses by bucket
win
loss
Signal × strength: hedge triggers
signals on primaries whose hedge won